Week  Readings  Supplementary Material  Supplementary Concepts & Problems  Test Dates 
1  Ch 1& 2: Logic and Inductive Logic  The Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow Arther Benjamin on Math Education Stories vs. Statistics by John Allen Paulos  Outcome bias 

2  Ch 3: Gambler's Fallacy  The Cancer Cluster Myth, Atul Gawande The NoStats All Star, by Michael Lewis  Simpson's paradox  
3  Ch 4: Elementary Probability Ideas
 Regression Toward the Mean The Truth Wears Off, by Jonah Lehrer Cosmic Habituation, WNYC Radiolab  Regression to the mean 

4  Ch 5: Conditional Probability  Connecting the Dots, Malcolm Gladwell  Boy or girl paradox  Test 1 Solution 
5  Ch 6: Basic Rules of Probability  Khan Academy Probability Playlist  

6  Ch 7: Bayes' Rule  Against the Gods, Chapter 4, Peter Bernstein  Base Rate Neglect Prosecutor's Fallacy  Test 2 Practice 
7  Descriptive theory of Probability Chapters 5, 6 and 7 of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, by Hastie and Dawes.   Anchoring Availability Heuristic Certainty Effect Hindsight Bias Overconfidence  Test 2 Solution

8  Ch 8: Expected Value  Our Mistaken Expectations, Dan Gilbert  Affect Heuristic 

9  Ch 9: Maximizing Expected Value  Conflicts of Interest, Dan Ariely The Riddle of Experience, Dan Kahnemann  Allais Paradox Ellsburg Paradox Framing Martingale Betting Hyperbolic Discount


10  Ch 10: Decision Under Uncertainty  Do You Suffer from Decision Fatigue?, J. Tierney Are We in Control of our Decisions?, Dan Ariely  Information Bias Precautionary Principle  Test 3 Solution 
11  Ch 11 & 12: Theories of Probability 
  
12  Ch 1315: Probability as a Measure of Belief 
 

13  Ch 16 & 17: Probability as Frequency I: Stability and Normal Approximations  The Neuroscience of Screwing Up, Jonah Lehrer   Test 4 Solution 
14  Ch 18 & 19: Probability as Frequency II: Significance and Power, Confidence    
15  Ch 20: The Philosophical Problem of Induction    
Finals  Final exam date. See final exam schedule.    Test 5 & 6 Solution 