Schedule Philosophy 61 Fall 2011

  • Readings are from Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic unless otherwise stated. 
  • Supplements are links to online material.
  • Schedule is approximate.  Consult  What's Up page for daily advice.

 Week ReadingsSupplementary
Material
Supplementary
Concepts & Problems
Test
 Dates
 1Ch 1& 2: Logic and Inductive LogicThe Drunkard's Walk, Leonard Mlodinow
Arther Benjamin on Math Education
Stories vs. Statistics by John Allen Paulos
 Outcome bias
 2Ch 3:  Gambler's FallacyThe Cancer Cluster Myth, Atul Gawande
The No-Stats All Star, by Michael Lewis
Simpson's paradox 
 3Ch 4: Elementary Probability Ideas 
Regression Toward the Mean
The Truth Wears Off, by Jonah Lehrer
Cosmic Habituation, WNYC Radiolab
Regression to the mean
 4Ch 5: Conditional ProbabilityConnecting the Dots, Malcolm GladwellBoy or girl paradoxTest 1 Solution
 5Ch 6: Basic Rules of ProbabilityKhan Academy Probability Playlist 
 6Ch 7: Bayes' RuleAgainst the Gods, Chapter 4, Peter BernsteinBase Rate Neglect
Prosecutor's Fallacy
Test 2 Practice
 7Descriptive theory of Probability
Chapters 5, 6 and 7 of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, by Hastie and Dawes.
 Anchoring
Availability Heuristic
Certainty Effect
Hindsight Bias
Overconfidence
Test 2 Solution
 8Ch 8: Expected ValueOur Mistaken Expectations, Dan GilbertAffect Heuristic 
 9Ch 9: Maximizing Expected ValueConflicts of Interest, Dan Ariely
The Riddle of Experience, Dan Kahnemann
Allais Paradox
Ellsburg Paradox
Framing
Martingale Betting
Hyperbolic Discount

 10Ch 10: Decision Under UncertaintyDo You Suffer from Decision Fatigue?, J. Tierney
Are We in Control of our Decisions?, Dan Ariely
Information Bias
Precautionary Principle

Test 3 Solution
 11Ch 11 & 12:  Theories of Probability
  
 12Ch 13-15: Probability as a Measure of Belief
 
 13Ch 16 & 17: Probability as Frequency I: Stability and Normal ApproximationsThe Neuroscience of Screwing Up, Jonah Lehrer Test 4 Solution
 14Ch 18 & 19: Probability as Frequency II: Significance and Power, Confidence    
 15 Ch 20: The Philosophical Problem of Induction   
FinalsFinal exam date.  See final  exam schedule.  Test 5 &  6 Solution

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